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ARPA当时的领导

(图)Charles HerzfeldCharles Herzfeld

查尔斯·赫兹非尔德(Charles Herzfeld)(1965-67是主任,63-65为副主任,批准Arpanet项目)。

罗伯特·泰勒(Robert Taylor)(1932年出生,ARPA信息处理技术办公室副主任,1966年建议把不同地区的计算机连成网,即提出Arpanet项目,并积极物色项目负责人)。

拉里·罗伯茨(Larry Roberts)是他们找到的Arpanet项目负责人,成为ARPA的创始人。

目录

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ARPA创世纪编辑本段回目录

“信息处理技术办公室”与一般电脑研究部门的区别,也可以从另一个角度得到证明。1963年,“信息处理技术办公室”刚成立的时候,DARPA的负责人曾经对这个部门的作用有过疑问。在他们看来,如果电脑工业部门能做,DARPA就没有必要去做了。“如果这件事值得做的话,电脑工业部门就会去做。那么我们也就没有必要支持这样的事。”(DARPA原始资料,Ⅲ-23)

(图)Charles HerzfeldCharles Herzfeld

他们显然没有理解到,“信息处理技术办公室”的工作从一开始就不是电脑工业部门想到要做的。因为,这个办公室不仅仅是研究电脑技术问题,而是要使电脑成为人类交流的工具。正如“结束ARPANET的报告”中写的那样:

“ARPA的目标是使电脑成为人们进行交流的中介,”而“电脑工业主要还是把电脑看成是运算的工具。这一成见甚至在他们最近设计的通信系统中也有所表现。”……“哪怕是在大学中,或者至少是在一部分大学中,很多人仍然坚持把电脑看作是运算工具的概念。”(DARPA原始资料,Ⅲ-24)

所谓“交流”当然不可能是一台电脑的交流。要想交流,就必须建立网络。

1964年9月,在弗吉尼亚召开了第二届信息系统科学大会。会议期间,Larry Roberts和利克里德尔、Fernando Corbato以及Alan Perlis进行了非正式的交谈,确认了这样一个基本原则:

“我们目前在计算机领域面临的最重要的问题是网络,这也就是指能够方便地、经济地从一台电脑连接到另一台电脑上,实现资源共享。”(实现这一理想的光荣使命,历史性地落到了美国国防部的高级研究计划署、信息处理技术办公室(IPTO)的肩上。在当时,为DARPA建立网络期间担任IPTO主任的有:利克里德尔(1962-1964年)、Ivan Sutherland(1964-1966年)、Robert Taylor(1966-1969年)和LawrenceRoberts(1969-1973)。在1974-1976年期间,利克里德尔又杀了个回马枪。而这次接替他的则是C.Russell(1976-1979年)。

1966年对于DARPA来说,是个重要的年头。Robert Taylor担任了IPTO的主任。

而DARPA的主任也换成了来自奥地利的物理学家Charles Herzfeld。这个Herzfeld是个出名大方的人。有笑话说,如果你对研究计划有好想法,只要去找Herzfeld,用不了30分钟就可以弄到钱!

《关住魔迹的地方-互联网的起源》一书介绍了DARPA建设网络的第一笔资金是怎么来的。1966年中的一天,Robert Taylor去找Herzfeld。问题很明显:与IPTO合作的人都越来越要求有更多的电脑。已经不可能花这么多钱了。况且,大家也需要互相了解各自的工作,并且最好能互相合作。这就需要想办法把电脑连起来。

Herzfeld问:“这是不是很难?”

(图)Charles HerzfeldCharles Herzfeld

回答:“哦,倒并不难。我们已经知道该怎么做了。

“好主意!接着往下做吧。现在已经为你的预算又增加了100万美元。赶紧去干吧!”

当Robert Taylor从Herzfeld的办公室出来的时候,多少带有一点遗憾,自言自语地说:“这才谈了不到20分钟啊!”

然而,仅仅有了钱还不够,需要找到一个能够完全领会利克里德尔建立网络的思想,并且能够把这一思想贯彻到底的,优秀的、有远见的电脑工程师

三顾茅庐

尽管Taylor的心里早已盘算好,Larry Roberts就是为DARPA设计网络的最佳人选;可是,后来的事实却证明,请Roberts来为DARPA工作,要比当年刘备“三顾茅庐”请诸葛亮还难。

Charles Herzfeld个人简介编辑本段回目录

At present, Dr. Charles Herzfeld is a Senior Fellow at the Institute and is a member of the Board of Regents. He also consults for the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), and the National Intelligence Council. In the past he has consulted for the Los Alamos National Laboratory; Arete, Inc. of Sherman Oaks, CA; Digital Systems International, Arlington, VA.; the Sandia National Laboratory, Applied Minds Corporation of Glendale CA; and the Northrop-Grumman Corporation.

From mid 1991 to January 1992, Dr. Herzfeld served as full time Senior Consultant to the Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy, in the Executive Office of the President, reporting jointly to the Assistant to the President for Science and Technology and to the Assistant to the President for National Security. He helped formulate recommendations to President Bush regarding national security, defense technology and counter-proliferation matters.

(图)Charles HerzfeldCharles Herzfeld

From early 1990 to mid 1991, he served as Director of Defense Research and Engineering of the Department of Defense, having been nominated by President Bush and confirmed by the U.S. Senate. In this capacity he directed the Department of Defense programs in Research, Development, Testing and Evaluation. He also supervised the Defense Advanced Research Agency (DARPA), and the Defense Nuclear Agency. He was Chairman of the Nuclear Weapons Council, and of the Intelligence R&D Council. During his tenure he helped develop and see into the Budget the High Performance Computing and Communications Initiative of the U.S. Government.

Beginning in 1985, until he joined the Defense Department in 1990, he was Vice Chairman of Aetna, Jacobs and Ramo Technology Ventures, a high technology venture capital group. He participated in the finding and selection for funding, of "hi-tech" companies, and assisted these companies with solving their management problems. He served on a number of Boards of Directors, including those of Memorex N.V., a large international supplier of computer equipment; of T Cell Sciences Inc., a biomedical company providing genetically engineered pharmaceuticals; of Aware Inc., a computer company specializing in high performance computer applications of wavelet theory, a recent, important mathematical discovery; of Coordination Technology Inc., a firm devoted to the development of the first significant software type called now "group-ware"; and of the Hecht-Nielsen Corporation, a computer company developing applications of artificial neural networks. He was a member of the Senior Advisory Group to the Chairman of the Contel Corporation, assisting the Chairman with solving business strategy problems involving the use of computing and communications technology.

From 1981 to 1985, Dr. Herzfeld was corporate vice-president of the ITT Corporation, a large, diversified, multi-national company. In this position he directed the corporate programs of research and technology in ITT. These programs were carried out in some twelve laboratories in ten different countries, including the U.S., Great Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Spain. Under his direction, the research and technology programs of the corporation were refocused and expanded significantly, particularly in the areas of microelectronics (VLSI), fiber optics, electronic systems, advanced software, and engineering materials. Earlier, from 1967 to 1980, he served variously as Technical Director of the Defense-Space Group, of the Aerospace, Electronics, Components and Energy Group, and of the Telecommunications, North America Group of the ITT Corporation.

He was Director of the Advanced Research Projects Agency, ARPA from 1965 to 1967, and Deputy Director from 1963 to 1965. He directed the Ballistic Missile Defense Program of ARPA from 1961 to 1963. While at ARPA, he advocated the start and supervised the beginning of the ARPANET (the predecessor of Internet), the development of the ILLIAC IV (the first massively parallel computer with 64 parallel processors), and a variety of other "hi-tech" programs. Before he came to ARPA, he served at the National Bureau of Standards, the Naval Research Laboratory and the Army Ballistic Research Laboratory.

He has served on a number of advisory boards, notably the Defense Science Board from 1968 to 1983, the Defense Policy Board from 1983 to 1990, and the Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) Executive Panel from 1970 to 2000. He served on the National Security Advisory Board of the Los Alamos National Laboratory. He is Senior Adjunct Fellow of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, DC. From 1994 to 1996 he chaired the Applications Subpanel of the GII (Global Information Infrastructure) Panel. President Reagan appointed him in 1985 to the National Commission on Space. He has chaired Task Force studies for the CNO Executive Panel on Stealth applications and on Technology Surprise. He was vice-chair of a National Academy of Sciences, National Research Council study of DoD Command and Control, Communications and Intelligence programs from 1996 to 1998. He chaired the Senior Advisory Group of the Navy 21 Study of the National Academy of Sciences, National Research Council. He was a member of the Technology Review Board of Hong Kong from 1992 to 1994. He was a member of an NAS/NRC study of R&D for the Department of Justice in 1976 to 1978.

Dr. Herzfeld is a member of the Council of Foreign Relations, of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (London), and is a Fellow of the American Physical Society, and of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.

He has written and lectured extensively on technical and policy matters. Recent publications include "The world in 2020, what will it be like" in the February 2001 issue of iMP, "Defending the Infrastructure" in the September 1999 issue of iMP (an on-line journal), "The Information Age is upon us, what will it be like?", Los Alamos report, LA-UR99-1091, and "Technology and National Security", in the Washington Quarterly, Summer 1989. He has testified extensively before key committees of the U.S. Congress on technology and defense issues. He is a member of the Cosmos Club of Washington D.C., and of the Explorers Club of New York.

Charles Herzfeld received a Ph.D. in Physical Chemistry from the University of Chicago in 1951.

1966年,阿帕网之父出山编辑本段回目录

 1966年,发生的最重要的事情,莫过于被后来尊称为“阿帕网之父”的Larry Roberts加入ARPA主持ARPANET(阿帕网,由ARPA组织建立的计算机网络)的研究工作。不过,事情的发生竟如此富有戏剧性,Roberts是在ARPA近乎于讹诈的手段下,阴差阳错地成了ARPANET的创始人。

(图)Charles Herzfeld等Charles Herzfeld等

  J.C.R. Licklider在ARPA只呆了两年。1964年,他举荐著名电脑图形专家,人称“虚拟现实之父”的Ivan Sutherland接手了信息处理技术办公室(IPTO)的领导工作。而第二年,Sutherland又从国家宇航局(NASA)聘请到33岁的Robert Taylor当他的副手。不久后,又把全部技术工作交给这位年青人管理。
  1966年,Taylor正式从Sutherland接过IPTO的工作,成为继Licklider之后,IPTO的第三任主任。同年,ARPA的局长也换成了来自奥地利的物理学家Charles Herzfeld。Herzfeld是个十分爽快的人,只要是有意义的项目方案,他总是很快审批。
  Taylor的办公室位于美国五角大楼的第3层,里面放置了3台电脑终端,分别连接着麻省理工学院、加州大学伯克利分校和圣莫尼卡市的主机,以便于Taylor与他手下的专家们进行交流。不过,3台电脑终端的类型各不相同,并且各自使用了一套不同的操作系统。在这种情况下,Taylor开始考虑实施一个可行的联网计划,一来解决相互交流的问题,二来减少电脑资源的浪费。
  1966年的一天,Taylor走进ARPA局长Herzfeld的办公室,大胆提出联网项目的建议。很有趣的是,谈话不到20分钟,Herzfeld就批给Taylor 100万美元的项目启动资金。
  对于这个项目的领导人,Taylor心里早有最佳人选,那就是1965年在林肯实验室负责远程联网实验的Larry Roberts。
  Larry Roberts是林肯实验室高级研究员, 年仅28岁。他与Licklider博士类似,也是靠自学计算机技术,而后成为行家的天才。他还为后一代机型TX-2编写了分时系统。林肯实验室的人都知道,Roberts学习新知识非常快,一本新书10分钟就能读完;更可贵的是,他还具备组织管理才能,主持的科研项目大都能高效率地完成。
  可是,Taylor请Roberts到ARPA工作,比刘备三顾茅庐请诸葛亮出山还难。
  当时,身为学者的Roberts考虑的只是如何改进联网性能,根本没想到ARPA正在打他的主意。当Taylor首次登门拜访邀请他时,Roberts委婉地回绝了盛情邀请。Taylor本来可以再找其他的人选,可是他心里非常清楚,再没有什么人比Roberts更合适的了。不久后Taylor再次前往林肯实验室,甚至暗示说Roberts将出任下一任IPTO主任。Roberts只好明确地告诉Taylor,他不愿去华盛顿当技术官僚,林肯实验室是他人生最佳的选择。
  在此之后,Taylor几乎每两个月要给Roberts打一次电话,苦苦劝说他为国家效力。1966年底,在一切努力都告失败之后,Taylor只好来到上司Herzfeld的办公室。这次谈话的目的不是为了要钱,而是为了要人,而且这次谈话的时间比上次要求启动资金长了很多。看来,找一个合适的人选来工作,比找钱更难。
  Taylor问Herzfeld:“ARPA是不是每年把自己50%以上的资金都给了林肯实验室?”
  Herzfeld感到这个问题有点莫名其妙,反问道:“是又怎样?”
  Taylor把自己多次屈尊求Roberts出山的经历讲了一遍。Herzfeld听后,立即拿起电话,拨通了林肯实验室主任的办公室。道理非常简单,让Roberts来ARPA,既符合国家的利益,也符合林肯实验室的利益。如果Roberts不来ARPA工作,后果对林肯实验室来说可想而知。
  这看起来简直就是讹诈。可是,为了国家的利益也就顾不上许多。两周后,Roberts就坐在了美国国防部高级研究计划局信息处理技术办公室的桌前,开始新的工作。从此,Roberts把全部精力转移到设计ARPANET上。
 
备忘录(1966) 

  ★麻省理工学院的Larry Roberts发表论文《Towards a Cooperative Network of Time-Shared Computers》。
  ★ARAP确定第一个ARPANET计划。
  ★英国科学家Donald Davies在英国国家物理实验室(NPL) 建立了包交换技术的理论。
  ★美国国防部(Research Projects Agency)与伊利诺斯州大学签订合同,设计制造并行处理计算机ILLIAC IV。
  ★美国制造商向零售市场推出了手持电子计算器。Texas Instruments公司推出了首例没有电子显示屏的固态版本。它将计算结果打印在热敏纸上。
  ★美国联邦通信委员会开展了首次计算机调查。 

Internet 的50年口述历史编辑本段回目录

50年前,苏联出人意料地成功发射人造卫星,美国军方因此成立了一个叫做 ARPA 的机构 - 美国国防部高级研究计划署,这个机构后来成为 Internet 的摇篮,最终在今天孕育出一个包含 Google, YouTube, Amazon, Facebook, Drudge Report 以及各种互联网应用的领域,这期间,每一次技术突破都激发出新的技术,网络协议,超文本,World Wide Web,以及浏览器,VanityFair 杂志的 Keenan Mayo 和 Peter Newcomb 将那些创造了这些技术的人召集起来,让他们亲口讲述 Internet 的50年历史。

今年是一个不同寻常的事件的50周年,1958年,美国军方设立了一个特殊机构,ARPA (美国国防部高级研究计划署),该机构后来孕育了 Internet。今年还是第一个被广泛使用的浏览器, Mosaic 的诞生15周年,Mosaic 将 Internet 带到普通人的手中。VanityFair 对这些发明创造了 Internet 技术的人进行了超过100小时的访谈,本访谈录中文翻译将分9个章节发表。

第一章:概念

Paul Baran 是一个电气工程师,1960年他工作于 Rand Corporation 公司之际,发明了 Internet 的重要基石之一,数据包交换。数据包交换不同于传统的电话交换,电话交换将数据完整的通过电路传送,而数据包交换将数据打散成一个个独立的包,每个包都包含自己的寻址信息,这些数据包到底目的地之后,再重新组装成原来的数据。当时持同样想法的还有英国的 Donald Davies。

Paul Baran:

当时我们需要一个能经得住打击的通讯系统,但我们没有,苏联的导弹瞄准了我们,导弹可以摧毁我们的电话系统,当时,战争决策命令通过两种途径发出,一是电话系统,二是无线电,电话因为是个集中式系统,间接的打击足以将之破坏,所以我们需要一个非集中式的系统,即使受到打击也能够找到其它路径。

我获准开始一些从未做过的事,我只是做了数据包交换的一小部分工作却因整个 Internet 遭到责备,技术已经成熟到一定程度,所需的东西已经具备,需求摆在那里,经济看上去也不错,那就找人做吧。

Leonard Kleinrock, a professor of computer science at U.C.L.A., was instrumental in creating the earliest computer networks, in the 1960s. J. C. R. Licklider, one of the fathers of computer science and information technology, was the first director of arpa’s computer-science division.

Leonard Kleinrock 是 U.C.L.A. 的计算机教授,60年代时被指派创建最初的计算机网络。J.C.R.  Licklider 是计算机与信息技术之父之一,是 ARPA 计算机部的第一任主管。

Leonard Kleinrock:

Licklider 是个思想敏捷的人,他为我们打下了基础。他预见了计算机的两个发展方向,一个是人机交流,另一个广泛的应用,包括教育,创作,商务,他预见了一个连在一起的信息世界。当时的文化氛围是,你遇到了一个优秀的科学家,就放手让他做,不要告诉他如何做,只告诉他你感兴趣的东西,我需要人工智能,我需要网络,我需要分时系统,不要告诉他如何实现。

Robert Taylor left nasa and became the third director of arpa’s computer-science division. Taylor’s chief scientist was Larry Roberts, who oversaw development of the Arpanet. arpa’s director was Charles Herzfeld.

Robert Taylor 离开 Nasa 后,成为 ARPA 计算机部的第三任主管,Taylor 手下的首席科学家是 Larry Roberts, 他负责指导 Arpanet 的开发,ARPA 的主管是 Charles Herzfeld。

Bob Taylor:

1957年的人造卫星让很多人震惊,艾森豪威尔让国防部设计一个特殊部门,以便我们可以掌握主动权。 ARPA 的文化是孤注一掷,首先它有无限的权利,如果 ARPA 需要空军,海军或陆军的合作,它可以立即得到,不会有任何质疑,那里没有官僚主义,任何事都很容易执行。

Leonard Kleinrock: 

Bob Taylor 一直为真个国家的众多计算机科学家提供资金,他认识到计算机之间的相互访问生命尤关。

Bob Taylor: 

当时 ARPA 零星地发起了计算机之间的分时交流,它们分散在全国。我在五角大楼的办公室中,有一个终端同 M.I.T 的分时系统连接,我还有一个同 U.C. Berkeley 的连在一起,还有一个是同 Santa Monica 的 System Development Corporation 的分时系统连接,还有一个同 Rand 公司的连接。

我要使用这些系统,必须从一个终端走到另一个终端,于是我想,为什么不能只有一个终端,我想连接到哪里就连接到哪里,结果就诞生了 Arpanet。

当我打定主意要创建这样一个网络,那时是1966年,我来到 Charlie Herzfeld 的办公室,他非常迅速地重新做了预算,从别的办公室拿来100万美元,让我动手做,整个过程只花了20分钟。

Paul Baran:

数据包交换遇到的第一个障碍是 AT&T,他们竭尽全力阻止,他们当时在通讯领域拥有绝对的垄断,当听到别人讲有一个更好的系统时认为那是无稽之谈,他们觉得我们根本不知道自己在做什么。

 Bob Taylor:
同 AT&T 合作就象同原始人合作一样,我问,他们是否愿意加入进来,以便可以早期得到我们的技术,他们说,不用。我问为什么,他们说,因为数据包交换根本行不通,他们的态度很强硬,结果 AT&T 没有赶上网络的早班车。
Robert Kahn 加入 M.I.T 电气工程系之前,在贝尔实验室从事技术工作,1966年,他进入剑桥从事网络理论,并一直工作到1972年。70年代,当他被任命为 ARPA 计算机部的主管之后,同 Vint Cerf  一起研究 TCP / IP 网络。

Bob Kahn:

那时全世界还没有几个分时系统,AT&T 可能说,我们可能需要 50 或 100个机构,甚至几百个,才能在合理的时间内实现这些,那时,个人电脑还没出现,任何东西都需要在那些昂贵的大型机上做,这里面不会有任何商机,我们为什么要浪费这个时间。其实这就是 ARPA 存在的意义。

 Stewart Brand  以编撰全球目录(Whole Earth Catalog)著称,他是个人类学家,是全球商业网络(Global Business Network )的创始人之一。

Stewart Brand:

那个时代一切缘于 ARPA,计算机和计算机网络的资金来自政府,Arpanet 的初衷是汇集计算力量,不是用于电子邮件,但最终计算力量的汇集并非多么重要,电子邮件却成了杀手级应用。当时,有两伙人,一伙企图让计算机资源融合,一伙努力让人们相互连接,发明来自多个方向,人们并没有有意要那样做。

不管怎样,我们那时都是些晚九朝五的科学家,整夜不睡,头发长长,卖命工作赢得尊重,我们绝大多数是男性。

The IT Godfather Speaks: Q&A With Charles M. Herzfeld编辑本段回目录

The former ARPA director remembers spending big bucks on big ideas 40 years ago and deplores the sorry state of IT research today.
Gary Anthes
 September 24, 2007 (Computerworld) Is DARPA still funding the kinds of research that made the U.S. an IT leader? Charles M. Herzfeld, a senior fellow at the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies in Arlington, Va., has a few thoughts on the matter.

Herzfeld was hired by the Advanced Research Projects Agency (later renamed the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency) in 1961 to head up research in ballistic missile defense, and he became ARPA's fifth director in 1965. He also served as director of Defense Research & Engineering, to which DARPA reports, from 1990 to 1991.

What was your introduction to computing?

When I was a graduate student at the University of Chicago, in 1948 or so, John von Neumann came and gave three seminars on electronic computing. He was instrumental in getting the ENIAC built, and he came to tell us about it. It was hugely important stuff, and it changed my life absolutely.

Then, before ARPA, J.C.R. Licklider gave two or three lectures at the Pentagon, and I remember those vividly. He said, "The way we were doing computing is really pretty stupid. I think there's a better way." He was a brilliant man, and I became a disciple of his.

And a few years later, you and Licklider would end up at ARPA, with Licklider the first director of its Information Processing Techniques Office.

Yes. IPTO was one of the things at ARPA that I became godfather of. I was the go-to guy if it got into trouble. [The IPTO] directors changed the world, but I claim to be the godfather, not the father. And as godfather, I took their message to Congress.

What else did you do as godfather?

I signed the first two or three ARPA orders in 1966 and 1967 as director. I said, "Do that -- build a network, however small and crappy it is." Lick was gone by then [he went to IBM in 1964], but I had recruited Bob Taylor as the follow-on.

One day Taylor dropped into my office, and he got $1 million in 20 minutes. He acts like I was sitting in my chair handing out million-dollar checks, but not so. I was sure that networking computers would change computing. I do not claim to have foreseen what happened, but I knew Licklider was on to something.

Did you casually hand out big sums like that very often?

Whenever it was needed. My secret was that I always had money because there was a long list of things we were doing that we didn't have to do. I was ruthless about that.

What else did IPTO do in those early days?

We created the whole artificial intelligence community and funded it. And we created the computer science world. When we started [IPTO], there were no computer science departments or computer science professionals in the world. None.

Do you agree with some today that DARPA has pulled back from the long-range, high-risk projects?

There certainly has been a change, and it's not for the better. But it may be inevitable. I'm not sure one could start the old ARPA nowadays. It would be illegal, perhaps. We now live under tight controls by many people who don't understand much about substance.

What was unique about IPTO was that it was very broad technically and philosophically, and nobody told you how to structure it. We structured it. It's very hard to do that today.

But why? Why couldn't a Licklider come in today and do big things?

Because the people that you have to persuade are too busy, don't know enough about the subject and are highly risk-averse. When President Eisenhower said, "You, Department X, will do Y," they'd salute and say, "Yes, sir." Now they say, "We'll get back to you." I blame Congress for a good part of it. And agency heads are all wishy-washy. What's missing is leadership that understands what it is doing.

The Washington Post [on Aug. 13] ran a Page 1 story saying that the FBI had given emergency responders $25 million in "computer kits" for exchanging information on suspected explosives, including weapons of mass destruction. But, The Post said, many of the kits didn't work and some were just abandoned. What do you make of that kind of report?

We are becoming incapable of handling a technology challenge of any major magnitude. We are losing the ability to do big, complicated things. In your example, nobody thought that someone had to organize a maintenance space for repairs, spare parts and so on. They only thought about buying the radios.

Is it partly a failure of technology?

Absolutely not. We have technology on the shelf we don't know what to do with, and we are buying more every day, to the tune of billions of dollars a year. What's missing is leadership that understands what it is doing. The whole thing is just off the rails.

What's the story at the National Science Foundation?

My friends complain that they have to submit 10 proposals to get one funded. Cuckoo. And it's tremendously demoralizing and very inefficient. The process is too risk-averse. But doing really good research is a high-risk proposition. If the system does not fund thinking about big problems, you think about small problems.

Could there be another Sputnik?

Yes, I expect it. In the biological world, it may be an accident. Someone is doing virus research and comes up with something that spreads easily and kills a lot of people. There is terrorism. It is absolutely thinkable that these guys will steal a nuclear weapon, have some technical help and blow it off in New York Harbor.

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