亚洲大都市发展之困编辑本段回目录
Over the next two decades, the world will see a burst of urban expansion at a speed and on a scale never before witnessed in human history. But not all the world will take part. When you hear about the coming urban age, it's really a story about rising Asia and the two countries that will define this new era of the megacity: China and India. Half of Asia will become urbanized, and nearly a billion people will shift from countryside to cityscape.
在接下来的二十年里，全世界将目睹一次极其快速的城市扩张，其速度和规模史无前例。但并不是全世界都会参与。当你听到“下一个城市时代”（urban age）这个词时，它实际上是指一个关于正在崛起的亚洲和中国与印度（这两个国家将主导这个大都市新纪元）的故事。未来，亚洲有一半区域被城市化，并且大约将有10亿人从农村转移到城市。
Trillions of dollars will need to be spent on roads, trains, power plants, water systems, and social services. And it's going to happen in less than half the time that it took the West. China and India will account for two-fifths of the world's urban growth, but they are pursuing wildly different strategies for managing this shift. Beijing's approach is systematic: The government has invested ahead, allocated land, plotted out transportation networks, and given its cities the freedom to raise capital. New Delhi, meanwhile, hasn't done enough to prepare. So while China has embraced a future of office parks and high-speed rail, India is just waking up to its new urban reality.将需要数万亿美元用于公路、铁路、发电厂、自来水系统和社会服务机构的建设。且亚洲城市化所需的时间将不及西方的一半。中国与印度的城市增长将占据全世界的五分之二，但是它们对待这种转变的战略完全不同。北京的策略是系统性的：政府投资在前，分配土地，规划交通网络，并赋予城市招募资本的自由。与此同时，新德里还没有完全准备好。因此，当中国已经在建设一个拥有商务花园和高速铁路的未来的时候，印度才刚意识到新城市化的要求。
Who Goes Where
他们在哪里
In just two decades, China will have a whopping 44 urban areas boasting populations larger than 4 million. India will have 11 such cities. Who will live there? In China, the answer is simple: migrants from rural areas. Growth in India’s cities, by contrast, will mainly be organic. The country’s population is also much younger than China's. A mere 16 percent of India’s population will be over 55 in 20 years, while 28 percent of China's will be.
在未来短短20年里面，中国将有44个巨大的城市，这些城市的人口超过4000万。印度将有11个那样的城市。谁会生活在哪里？在中国，答案很简单：来自农村地区的移民。相比之下，印度城市人口的增长将主要是自然发展的结果。该国的人口比中国的要年轻很多。在未来20年，仅有16%的印度人年龄会超过55岁，而中国是28%。
What Needs Building?
需要建什么？
It’s the stuff of dreams for developers and construction companies. If current trends hold, China will need 40 billion square meters of combined residential and commercial floor space over the next 20 years -- equivalent to adding one New York every two years. India, on the other hand, needs to start building between 700 million and 900 million square meters of combined residential and commercial space each year -- equivalent to adding more than two Mumbais or one Chicago each year.
对于开发商和建筑公司来说，建设就是梦想的本质。如果目前的趋势保持下去，那么在接下来的20当中，中国将需要400亿平方米的住宅和商业楼层建筑面积——相当于每两年增加一个纽约。另一方面，印度每年需要开始建设7亿平方米的住宅和9亿平方米商业空间——相当于每年增加两个孟买或者一个芝加哥。
Transportation
交通
China has the potential to revolutionize mass transit -- it already has plans for building new metros, highways, and high-speed trains in its top 170 cities. In fact, Beijing has already begun investing heavily in this sector; between 2004 and 2006 alone, spending on urban transportation increased almost 50 percent. New Delhi's spending on transportation infrastructure, however, needs to pick up urgently. At its current rate of metro and road construction, India is headed for gridlock on a massive scale. The country needs to build 350 to 400 kilometers of metro rail every year to keep up with its current standards -- but that’s more than 20 times the capacity that has been built in the past decade.中国有潜力革新其轨道交通体系——它已经计划好在170个城市建设新地铁、高速公路和高速铁路。事实上，北京已经在这个环节进行大规模投资；仅在2004年和2006年之间，城市交通方面的投资增加了50%。然而，新德里在交通基础设施上的投资急需加快步伐。按照印度目前的地铁和道路建设比率，它将面临大规模的交通拥堵问题。要跟上目前的标准，印度每年需要建设350到400千米的地铁线路——但是目前的交通容量是过去十年建设的地铁容量的20多倍。
Energy
能源
It's hard to understate what a massive impact the coming urbanization in China and India will have on energy markets. Demand for power in China's cities will more than double from today’s level, accounting for roughly 20 percent of global energy consumption. Meeting that need will call for huge investments in coal, of which China is already the largest international buyer. India's power targets are also ambitious; the country hopes to add 62,000 megawatts to its grid by 2012. If trends continue, India's carbon dioxide emissions will grow nearly sevenfold by 2030, while China's will nearly double.
现在很难说中国与印度未来的城市化对能源市场将产生怎样重大的影响。未来中国城市对能源的需求将是目前水平的两倍多，大约占全球能源消耗的20%。为了满足这种需求，需要对煤炭资源进行巨大投资，而在这方面中国已是全球最大买家。印度的能源目标同样雄心勃勃；该国希望到2012年其电网的发电量要增加62000兆瓦。如果这种趋势持续下去，到2030年，印度的碳排放将增加将近7倍，而中国将增加将近两倍。 
The Price Tag
成本（the Price Tag）
Urban growth will come with a high price tag -- a whopping $35-$40 trillion in China and $2.2 trillion in India over the coming two decades. In addition to all the building and public infrastructure, China and India will need to invest heavily in delivering services -- everything from education to health care to social security. As China's over-65 population more than doubles and migrants flood its cities, government spending on health care will struggle to keep up, rising from 19 percent to 21 percent of GDP. Even with China’s massive economic growth, paying the bill won’t be easy. Many of Chi-na’s largest cities are self-sufficient, but other smaller and newer areas are already running deficits. India’s urban spending, meanwhile, is already very low by international standards.
城市扩大将需要高成本——在未来20年中，中国将需要350~400亿美元而印度需要22亿美元。除了在所有建筑和公共设施上的投资，中国与印度还需要对服务业进行大量投资，包括教育到医疗到社会安全的所有服务行业。由于中国65岁以上人口几乎翻番以及农村人口涌入城市，政府在医疗方面的投资将从GDP19%上升到21%。即使中国经济增长强劲，但是支付这样的投资也不会是一件容易的事。很多中国大城市能够自给自足，但是其他的小城市和新城市已经接近赤字了。与此同时，按照国际标准，印度的城市投资还非常低。
What Will It Be Like to Live There?
那里的生活将会如何？
The megacity will be home to China's and India’s growing middle classes -- creating consumer markets larger than to-day’s Japan and Spain, respectively. In China, the number of urban middle-class households will quintuple; in India it will grow nearly fourfold. India's wealthiest urban households -- those earning more than 1 million rupees a year (about $22,000) -- could number 11 million, more than the total number of households in Australia today. In both countries, the wealth gap between rural and urban areas will grow with urbanization. Urban GDP per capita will exceed rural GDP by 3.5 times in China and more than five times in India.
大都市将是中国与印度中产阶级的聚居地——由此形成的消费市场将分别大于当今日本和西班牙。中国城市中产阶级家庭数量将是目前的5被；印度将增长大约四倍。印度最富有的家庭（年收入超过100万卢比（22000美元））数量将达到1100百万，超过当今澳大利亚家庭总和。在这两个国家，随着城市化的进程，农村和城市地区的贫富差距将扩大。中国城市人均GDP将是农村地区的3到5倍，而印度将超过5倍。
Jobs
工作
Jobs in the cities will be more prevalent, productive, and lucrative in urban China and India than in rural areas.China's ranks of university graduates -- growing by 26 percent annually -- will mostly work in cities, which will compete to recruit their skills.In India, three-quarters of new urban jobs will be in the service sector.
中国和印度城市里面的工作将比农村地区更有优势、更富有成效、更有钱途。中国的大学毕业生——每年增长26%——大多数将在城市工作，他们将凭借技能寻找工作。印度四分之三的城市新工作将出现在服务行业。 
Traffic Nightmare
交通拥挤
Even if China and India build roads and metro rail as fast as practically possible, they still won't be able to match the soaring rates of car ownership and urban growth. The number of vehicles in China, for example, has grown three times faster than the capacity of roads over the last 20 years. In Beijing, traffic speed has already dropped to less than half of London’s. India’s predicament is even worse; if the country invests in its urban infrastructure at the predicted rate -- an estimated $300 billion over 20 years -- traffic across the country could literally come to a standstill.
即使中国与印度以尽可能快的速度建设公路和地铁，他们也不能跟上私家车和城市增长的速度。例如，过去20年，中国汽车数量增长速度是公路的3倍。北京的交通速度已经跌至伦敦的一半。印度的困境甚至更严重；如果该国按照预测的速度对城市基础设施进行投资——在20年里面投资大约3000亿美元——全国的交通将还是瘫痪的。
Service Gap
服务质量差距
China's biggest urban challenge may be water; already, it has little to spare. Some 70 percent of water use today traces back to agriculture, but demand from urban consumers and commercial enterprise is on the rise. Even if the sheer amount of water isn’t the problem, location will be; the country will need to spend more than $120 billion on water systems in the coming years to transport, store, and manage supplies. In India, service delivery will fall woefully short of demand in coming years across most urban infrastructure sectors.
中国城市最大的挑战可能是水资源；目前，能够节约的水已经很少。目前，将近70%的水用于农业，然而城市人口和商业企业对水的需求正在上升。即使水资源总量不是问题，地理位置将成为一个问题；中国未来需要在水资源系统上投资1200多亿美元用于水资源输送，储蓄和管理水资源。印度未来大多数城市基础设施环节将会出现严重的水资源短缺。
