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你准备好面对一个人类设计生物危害和中东石油企业主导地位结束的时代了吗?机器人司机、伊朗造智能炸弹、美国开放南部边境鼓励来自南方的移民而不再阻止他们跨境,这些事情都会出现么?欢迎阅读《外交政策》的首个未来预测专题,我们邀请了一些世界上最尖端的思想家对2025年的世界进行预测——而这些预测还不过是他们的奇思妙想的一小部分而已。

无处不在的科技生态系统

  
Welcome to the Hybrid Age.
欢迎进入“混合时代”
BY AYESHA KHANNA, PARAG KHANNA 

作者:艾莎·坎纳,帕拉·卡纳夫妇(AYESHA KHANNA, PARAG KHANNA)

It was the double date we had looked forward to more than any other. Just before sunset on a hot August day in Los Angeles, we sat in a nearly empty hotel restaurant awaiting the arrival of one of the most influential husband-and-wife intellectual teams in history: Alvin and Heidi Toffler.

这是一个我们期待已久的两对夫妻的约会。八月,炎热的洛杉矶,某天日落时分,我们坐在一个顾客寥寥无几的酒店餐厅里,期待着史上最有影响力的夫妻智囊团之一的出现:阿尔文与海蒂·托夫勒夫妇(Alvin,Heidi Toffler)。



图片说明:《未来的冲击》书影。

They may be octogenarians now, but pick up a copy of the Tofflers' most famous books -- Future Shock(1970) and The Third Wave (1980) -- and you will quickly wonder why anyone bothers to write the redundant meta social and political commentaries that drown us today. These books, written when we were children, contain such stunning and prescient insights, encapsulated in elegant yet racing prose, that they ought to be essential reading four decades onward. Indeed, you couldn't be blamed for thinking they had just been published this year.

他们现在应该有80多岁了,可你要是读过到托夫勒夫妇最著名的作品《未来的冲击》(作于1970年代)和《第三次浪潮》(作于1980年代),你会觉得很奇怪,为什么现在的人倒反而忙于写作那些充斥着四周的多余的社会和政治评论呢。这两本书写作时,我们都还是小孩子,书中包含着令人惊叹而又极具有先见之明的见解,文字优雅而活泼,成书四十多年来,它们是世人必读的著作。可是,如果你认为它们是今年刚出的新作品,那可一点也不奇怪。

Terms and concepts that are on the tip of everyone's tongue today leap off the pages: the crisis of industrialism, the promise of renewable energy, ad-hocracy in business, the rise of the non-nuclear family, technology-enabled telecommuting, the power of the pro-sumer, sensors embedded in household appliances, a gene industry that pre-designs the human body, corporate social responsibility, "information overload" -- and yes, right there on p. 292 of The Third Wave, the phrase Wired magazine can't get enough of today: "DIY Revolution." No wonder the book has been dubbed the "classic study of tomorrow." (Of the very few things they seem to have gotten wrong, or at least not yet right, is widespread polygamist communes.)
 书中写到的各种名词与概念今日已是人人耳熟能详:工业化危机、可再生能源的前景、企业中的灵活组织机构、非传统社会家庭的涌现、科技促成远程办公、产消合一的力量、家电中的嵌入式传感器、预先设计人体结构的基因工业,企业的社会责任、信息过载——所有这些东东,都出现在《第三次浪潮》的第292页上,《连线》杂志更是从里面挖出了今天用到滥得不能再滥的术语“DIY革命”。难怪该书被称为“未来学的经典著作。”(书里提到的一些事情可能是错误的,或者至少目前还不是正确的,比如说,一夫多妻制的人民公社。)  
In person, the Tofflers were just as insightful, making connections between America's congressional deadlock, Asians' obsession with high technology, and the inertia of Mideast politics. But what's so extraordinary about the Tofflers is not what they told us in that restaurant, but their long-ago insights about today's society that seem so relevant now, especially considering that many were not at all obvious at the time. Where conventional wisdom of the era saw mass industrialization turning common citizens into straitjacketed "mass man," the Tofflers saw stratification and functional differentiation generating a superindustrial society with a "quilt-like" diversity. And where the public was either ignorant or complacent about the far-reaching effects of advanced communications technology, the Tofflers foresaw telephony and virtual worlds that would force us to devise ever more creative ways to avoid overstimulation and preserve our privacy. From the vantage point of a present in which overexposure to the Internet is labeled an addiction, it seems quite an observation on their part to recognize that even diseases would be technologically generated. The Tofflers' "future shock" is at once a sickness and a way of life.

托夫勒夫妇本人也洞察时世,他们从美国国会的僵局,谈到了亚洲人对高科技的痴迷,以及中东政治的惯性问题。不过托夫勒夫妇在餐厅里跟我们谈的这些事没什么特别的,他们的特别之处在于那么久远以前就能说出和今天的社会实际相近的预言,尤其是考虑到当时社会的很多方面并没有显著地显现出未来的样子。当时的传统观点认为大规模工业化将会把普通的公民社会转变为易受束缚的“泛泛之众”,而托夫勒夫妇则认为,社会将分为更多的层次、功能也不断分化,最终产生一个超工业化的社会,就像叠成一层层的被套一样,具有丰富的多样性。当时的社会对先进的通信科技要么是一无所知、要么是认为有能力掌控,但托夫勒夫妇则预见到了随着通信科技的发展和虚拟世界的出现,将会强迫我们制定更具创造性的方法,以避免对我们的隐私造成过度的刺激并保护隐私。他们还破天荒地意识到了科技将会产生新的人类疾病,看看现在的网瘾症吧。托夫勒夫妇所谓的“未来的冲击”实际也可看成是某种病态与生活方式的出现。

Clearly, the Tofflers -- now writing one last book, their memoirs -- still have cutting-edge ideas to offer. Just as importantly, they are their own best argument for the profession they invented: futurism. But how did they do it?

显然,托夫勒夫妇现在在写的最后一本书——他们的回忆录,依然包含了前沿的想法。与之同样重要的是,他们本人就是他们所创造的学科:“未来学”的最佳参照系数。但他们将会怎么做呢?  

While the field may have gotten its name from the fascist Italian poet Filippo Marinetti, who authored a brief and obscure "Futurist Manifesto" in 1909, the Tofflers made futurism a true calling -- something that one does. And they did it the hard way. Growing up in post-Depression America, they abandoned New York City and moved to the heartland, working for years as welders and union stewards at aluminum foundries and mills, experiencing all the hardship of industrialism at its peak. Only that way could they truly break it down and imagine what would come next.

尽管这个“未来学”这个学科的名称可能是来自于意大利的法西斯主义诗人菲利普·马里内蒂(Filippo  Marinetti)在1909年撰写的一部简短而晦涩的作品《未来主义宣言》,但托夫勒夫妇才是让未来学真正地登堂入室,步入主流文化领域的人。他们是在逆境中完成这些一切的。他们在大萧条后的美国长大,放弃了在纽约的生活并搬到了美国中部,在铝厂和造纸厂工作过,做过焊工和工会董事,经历过美国工业化高峰期所有的困境。正因为有过如此的人生经历,才让他们能对社会进行分析并设想它将会如何变化。

Predicting the future is not about locking yourself in a room, staring into a crystal ball. It is, in a sense, reporting -- getting to the people and ideas on the bleeding edge. Through persistent travel, site visits, interviews, and embedding themselves like journalists, the Tofflers used their imagination to piece together an elusive future. The Tofflers didn't make any scientific discoveries, invent a new technology, or launch a brand-name business, but they pioneered a new vocabulary to capture how such activities intersect. How many mainstream books from the 1970s spoke of the multiplication of media channels enabling individuals to construct their own reality, or of the separatist region of Abkhazia in the then-Soviet republic of Georgia?
  

预测未来可不是把你自己锁在一个房间里,盯着一个水晶球。从某种意义来说,它是对最前沿的人类思想的总结汇报。托夫勒夫妇通过不断的旅行、实地考察、采访、并像记者一样四处打探,最终利用自己的想像力,拼凑出一个可望而不可及的未来。托夫勒夫妇没有科学发现、没有创造发明、没有发家创业,但他们开创了一个新的词汇,捕捉到了人类的行为是如何相互感应。自1970年代以来,有几本主流书籍能够说到各种媒介渠道的交合将会使个人有能力建造出他们的自己的虚拟世界?有有几人能预见到当时苏联格鲁吉亚共和国境内的阿布哈兹会分裂?



图片说明:《第三次浪潮》书影。

  
IN THE THIRD WAVE, the Tofflers foresaw that advanced societies would no longer be content to see humankind as the pinnacle of evolution. Instead, they wrote, we are moving into a brave new world where knowledge will become an inexhaustible commodity and transform not just our economies but more deeply our sense of who we are -- and "not just for a generation, but forever," as they put it.
  

在《第三次浪潮》中,托夫勒夫妇预见到发展到高级阶段的社会不再满足于把人类作为进化的巅峰。与之相反的是,他们写道,我们正在向一个勇敢的新的世界前进,知识将成为取之不尽,用之不竭的物品,知识不仅仅改造我们的经济形态,而且会更深入地影响到人类的自我意识——“这不仅仅是一代人的事情,而是永久的事情”,这就是他们所说的。

  
A generation later, it is time to revive the Tofflers' methodology as we try to understand an incipient future in which technology has insinuated itself into every sphere and nook of human activity -- from the manipulation and replication of DNA to space exploration -- and in which humans continuously seek ways to speed up their biological evolution to match the breakneck pace of technological evolution. The only way to do that is to incrementally integrate with technology, launching an era of change and innovation that we call the Hybrid Age. If the first wave was agrarian and tribal, the second industrial and national, and the third informational and transnational, then the Hybrid Age is what the Tofflers might call the "Fourth Wave." In this new era, human evolution has become human-technology co-evolution: We're becoming part of the machine, and it is becoming part of us.

经历了一代人的时间之后,让我们通过对未来社会初期的了解来重温托夫勒夫妇的理论,科技已然渗入人类活动的方方面面——从操纵、复制DNA到太空探索,人类在不断加速自我的生物进化过程,与寻求与惊人的科技革新节奏相匹配的发展之路。而唯一的途径就是让社会与科技逐步整合,进入一个我们现在称之为“混合时代”的富于变革和创新的年代。如果说人类发展的第一次浪潮是农业和部落社会阶段,第二次是工业与国家化阶段,第三次是信息化与国际化阶段,那“混合时代”可能就是托夫勒夫妇所谓的“第四次浪潮”。在这个新的纪元,人类的进化演变为人类与科技的协同进化:我们成为机器的一部分,而机器也成为人类的一部分。

There is no adequate word in English to capture this complex entanglement of humans and technology. The German word Technik comes closest: It means not just technology, but the mastery of the methods and processes that shape and steer it. In today's emerging world, Technik can be something of a broad index of preparedness for the future Hybrid Age. It rejoins the scientific and mechanical dimensions of technology with a necessary concern for its effect on humans and society. So while today we talk about promoting democracy, tomorrow we will realize we should be promoting good Technik.

在英语中,没有足够的词汇来表达出这一种人类与科技纠缠不清的状况。德语“Technik”一词或许意思接近:它的意思不仅是指科技,而且包括了对塑造和引导科技的方法与流程的掌握。对于今天的新兴世界来说,Technik可以泛指一系列与未来的混合时代的到来相关连的事物。科学将与设计机器大小的技术相结合,并充分考虑到科技产品将如何影响到人类与社会。今天,我们在谈论着促进民主,明天,或许我们会意识到应该提倡良好的“Technik”(后文暂译为“科技环境”,译注)。

Five characteristics differentiate this Hybrid Age from those that came before it: the ubiquitous presence of technology, its growing intelligence, its increasingly social dimensions, its ability to integrate and combine in new forms, and its growing power to disrupt, faster and on a larger scale than ever before in human history.
  

“混合时代”与前面的时代相比,将具有5大不同特点:科技无处不在;信息日益增长;社会层面日益增加;整合并联结出新的社会形态的能力;在规模上具有比以往任何时候的人类历史阶段更大更强的破坏力与发展力。

  
First, computers have become exponentially more powerful and cheaper at the same time. This trend is likely to continue for at least another decade, after which DNA computing -- literally using enzymes and molecules instead of silicon chips -- could bring us even cheaper nanoscale computers. Soon, extremely small computing machines and sensors will move from our smartphones and laptops into every single object we encounter in our daily lives, including our bodies. IBM estimates that by 2015, there will be 1 trillion devices connected to the Internet, constantly recording and sharing information. We will literally live in technology.
  

首先,电脑的性能已经很强同时价格也很便宜。这种趋势可能将持续至少十年,然后是DNA电脑的时代来临——从字面上的意思说,就是用酶和分子来代替硅芯片——这将会让我们拥有更便宜的纳米级的电脑。不久之后,非常小的计算机与传感器,将会从我们的手机与笔记本电脑中移动到我们的日常生活中来,包括进入我们的身体。IBM估计,到2015年,将有1万亿台设备连接到国际互联网,不断记录与共享信息。用文字来说,我们就生活在科技当中。

  
Second, technologies will no longer be just dumb repositories of information that require humans to understand and process them. They will be intelligent, able to understand the data they collect and work both autonomously and in concert with each other. When IBM computer Watson trounced two human competitors on the game show Jeopardy this February, it was a great breakthrough in artificial intelligence: By answering questions that required contextual understanding, Watson exhibited language comprehension, the highest marker of human intelligence -- and few Americans batted an eyelash. Someday, we will look back at those three nights as the moment the Hybrid Age became real.
  

其次,科技将不再是一堆哑巴的信息资源库的集合,需要人类认识和处理。它们将能理解所收集的数据并且自动地协作运行。IBM制造的电脑“华生”在今年二月举行的机智问答游戏节目“危险境地”上大败两位人类对手的那一刻,代表着一个人工智能的伟大突破来临:通过答出需要理解上下文后才能回答的问题,华生显示出了语言理解能力,这是人类最高智慧的标志——大部分美国人都看得目瞪口呆。将来会有一天,我们回顾在那三天晚上的节目中所发生的事情时,会发现这就是“混合时代”变为现实的开端。

  
Third, both the form and function of technologies will become anthropomorphic. Voice- and gesture-based commands will make interaction with machines more natural, and they will respond and react to us almost like humans. Even though their intelligence will be inferior to ours, we will find ourselves forming emotional ties to them. The love you have for your iPhone is just the beginning. In Japan, a young man recently married a video-game character. The more we immerse in online and virtual environments, the more our online behavior shapes our "real" behavior rather than simply mirroring it.

第三,科技的形式与功能将更拟人化。以语音和手势为基础的命令将会带来更自然的人机互动,机器将能以更为接近人类行为的方式进行反馈。即使它们的智力仍不及人类,但我们会发现自己会形成对它们的情感关联。爱上你自己的iPhone仅仅是个开始,在日本,一名年轻男子最近刚和一个视频游戏中的人物结婚。我们越是沉迷于网络和虚拟环境,我们在网上的行为就越能造就出我们在“真实世界”中的行为,而不是简单的镜像行为。

Fourth, technology will combine in new and powerful ways. Forget about the Internet: As scientific fields ranging from neuroscience and biology to mathematics and physics mingle and mate, they'll produce new technological offspring capable of unimagined prowess. Already, the Hybrid Age is moving us well beyond information technology into entire new sectors like biotechnology, nanotechnology, clean technology, artificial intelligence, and robotics, as well as invigorating traditional ones like industrial manufacturing and energy production. The falling cost of computing has unleashed collaboration across scientific fields and given rise to whole new arenas of invention. Biomechatronics, for example, brings together biology, electrical engineering, and physics to create lifelike prosthetics that are almost as good as our natural human limbs.

第四,科技将会以更新更强大的方式进行组合并展现在我们面前。忘掉国际互联网吧:随着科学各学科的不断交融结合,从神经科学到生物学、从数学到物理学,科学领域将会诞生新的拥有无限威力的新技术。目前,“混合时代”已经将人类从信息技术的世界引入到全新的行业中去,如生物技术、纳米技术、清洁技术、人工智能、机器人,并重新振兴了许多的传统行业,如制造业与能源产业。随着电脑计算成本的下降,科学界跨学科领域的协作能力得到释放,并创造出一个新的创新舞台。例如,生物电子机械工程学(Biomechatronics)就汇集了生物学、电子工程学和物理学的知识,并创造出了几乎像真人四肢一样自然的逼真的假肢。

Lastly, the Hybrid Age is not only one of increasing technological presence, but also technological disruption. Brian Arthur, a professor at the Santa Fe Institute, writes in The Nature of Technology that unlike humans, technology can mature, diversify, and scale at an accelerating pace. The more technologies that exist, the greater the number of combinatorial possibilities, resulting in ever newer and more complex products that revolutionize industries. This has already happened with jet engines and semiconductors and is now under way with software and carbon nanotubes, whose combination of strength, elasticity, and thermal-conduction properties could revolutionize everything from bone repair to batteries. This means we will constantly witness technologies blowing apart old business models as they come to market faster than ever.

最后,“混合时代”不仅是科技不断提高的时代,同时也是科技产生矛盾的时代。圣菲研究所的教授布赖恩·亚瑟在他的著作《技术的本质》中写道,技术与人类不一样,它的成熟、规模与多样化都能加速进行。存在的技术越多,技术组合的可能性也就越大,从而产生出更新更复杂的产品,并导致整个产业的革命化。这样的进程已经在喷气发动机制造和半导体工业中出现过了,现在,软件和碳纳米管正在经历着同样的进程,这两种技术的结合,将能大大改变物体的强度、弹性、和热传导性能,从而彻底改变从骨骼修复到电池制造的一切产品。这意味着我们将不断见证到旧的商业模式被技术所分解改变,技术将会以更快的速度进入市场。

And it's not just business models that will be affected. Take the coming advent of do-it-yourself manufacturing. At first blush, the United States' first-mover advantage in developing these affordable designer devices will empower its mom-and-pop shops to tailor-make niche products at cut-rate costs, threatening China's manufacturing base while reviving the U.S. economy. But if China suddenly loses revenue to America's heartland, how will it continue to recycle its vast foreign exchange reserves into U.S. Treasury bonds? In the end, one technological innovation in the United States could lead to its interest rates skyrocketing and economy tanking (again). Be careful what you wish for: The Hybrid Age is also an age of disruption.

而且,受到影响的不仅仅是商业模式,DIY(DIY是doityourself的缩写,自己动手的意思,译注)制造业也将从中受益。乍一看,美国将会从中受益,通过开发出人人都能买得起的设计设备,微型企业将能削减其生产成本,增强其为社会提供个性化定制产品的能力,从而导致美国经济的复苏并威胁中国的制造业基地优势。但如果中国突然失去了来自美国中心的收入,它会如何把存储在美国国债中的外汇储备陆续收回呢?最终,美国在科技上的一项创新会不会让美元的利率暴涨并导致经济(再)受重挫呢?要当心了:“混合时代”也是一个矛盾的时代。


IN THE HYBRID AGE, what distinguishes societies from one another is not just their geography, their culture, their income level, or other traditional factors, but their capacity to adapt to exponentially changing technological circumstances. We don't live in different places so much as we live in different stages of Technik.
  

在“混合时代”,社会与社会间的区别不再只是体现在地理、文化、收入水平或是其它传统的因素上,而且还要包括社会对不断变化的科技环境的适应能力。到那时,与其说我们生活在不同的地方,还不如说我们生活在不同的科技环境中。

  
In the 1970s, the Tofflers estimated that several million people were living "in the future" due to their degree of technological connectedness and faster pace of life. Today several million people in Tokyo alone live "in the future." Japanese society has robots teaching classrooms of teenagers, robo-pets monitoring and providing companionship to the elderly, and a cutting edge of young people with virtual avatars as lovers. The conventional analysis of Japan is that the country is "dying" because of its sharp demographic decline, but it is every bit as much evolving. Even a country still as overwhelmed by poverty as India is finding that it can elevate its Technik through high mobile-phone penetration, a biometric national identity card scheme, digital kiosks in dusty villages, and a sophisticated Right to Information Act that requires publishing all laws on the Internet.

1970年代,托夫勒夫妇就估计到有大约几百万人已经“生活在未来”,因为他们有更便利的条件与科技相通,有更快的生活节奏。今天,就有几百万人孤独地在东京“生活在未来”。日本社会已经出现了面对青少年的机器人教室,还为老年人提供电子宠物以陪伴和监测他们,和虚拟人物恋爱的年青人更是走在了时代前沿。用传统的分析眼光来看,日本这个国家“死气沉沉”,因为其人口急剧下降,但它的科技的每一个部分仍在不断发展中。即使是像印度这样依旧贫穷不堪的国家,也在不断提高其科技环境建设,他们在大量普及移动电话,计划推广具有生物识别能力的公民身份证,在尘土飞扬的村庄建设数字化信息亭,还发布《信息权利法》要求将所有的法律都发布在国际互联网上。

As we move into the Hybrid Age, whoever has the capacity to manage the intersection of technology, capital, and identity can become a pole of power. Politics will be recentered on not just the state, but four diverse, overlapping Cs: countries, cities, companies, and communities. Already we see the narrative shifting away from 19th-century dogmas such as "governments provide security and prosperity" toward a recognition that most governments are at best regulatory. Instead we hear that the private sector generates growth and prosperity, which in turn create stability. Governments range from those that have the resources to remain active shapers of political and economic identity (Singapore, China) to those where public and private are struggling to find a workable division of labor (Europe, the United States) to those that seem to do little at all (much of the post-colonial world). Employees of Facebook or Google can spend their days on campuses that are effectively full-service communes; the same is happening in companies in Russia, India, and China. One day a corporate passport might afford them greater freedom of mobility than their national citizenship.

在我们向“混合时代”前进的过程中,谁有能力把科技与资本管好,谁就能成为权力的核心。政治的中心不再只是国家,而是分为四个既重叠又各司其责的层面:国家、城市、公司、社区。我们已经看到,政府已经从19世纪的传统教条所认为的“政府负责社会的安全与繁荣”向现在所公认的政府是最佳监督者的角色转变。与之相反的是,私营企业才是促进经济增长和社会繁荣的角色,而私企的作用反过来又推动了社会稳定。世界上的政府管理可分为三类:有能力保持着政治与经济领导者的政府(如新加坡,中国);从政府到私人都各行其事各有分工的政府(如欧洲与美国);无所作为的政府(如大部分后殖民地时代的第三世界国家)。Facebook或谷歌的员工可以一整天都呆在公司里,高效而全面地为公司服务,俄国、印度与中国公司也同样如此。未来有一天,某个公司的通行证或许会比国家的护照让人拥有更自由的流动性。

In the Hybrid Age, we may all be suffering from a new kind of identity crisis. Instead of a world of West vs. East and democracies vs. dictatorships, we will be in a more complex reality where actors ranging from cities to diasporas to corporations to cloud communities struggle and compete to boost their Technik. Some governments will provide Technik for their citizens; others will fail. Megacorporations may gain loyalty and constituents by offering affordable Technik. And those that fail to do so will fall behind.
  

在“混合时代”,我们都可能会产生一种新的身份认同危机感。世界不再是西方与东方的对抗、民主与独裁的对抗,取而代之的是更复杂的现实,从大城市到散居各地的侨民,从公司到云社区的用户,他们都在不断地互相斗争、竞争以获取更强的科技环境力。有些政府会成功地为民众提供良好的科技环境,而某些政府会失败。巨型公司则通过提供廉价的科技环境而赢得员工的忠诚和消费者的肯定,而不能行此道者则失败无疑。

  
What truly differentiates the Hybrid Age from previous revolutionary periods is that it will become global very quickly. Billions of the world's poor from Africa to India are already participating in technological experimentation and have themselves become innovators of paradigm-shifting services. In India, about 10 million new mobile connections are activated every month. In Kenya, local engineers developed the mobile-phone banking system Safaricom that made many traditional banks in the country immediately redundant. Chris Anderson, curator of the TED conferences, calls such disruption "crowd-accelerated innovation." Thus the poor will play an unexpected role in the Hybrid Age, using technology to create opportunities for themselves and disruptions for the developed world.
  

“混合时代”与之前的革命时代相比,真正区别就在于它将会迅速遍布全球。从非洲到印度,数十亿的穷人已亲身参与到技术试验中来,他们自身也成为范式转移服务创新典型。在印度,每个月都有大约1千万台新的移动设备被激活。在肯尼亚,工程师开发出手机银行系统“Safaricom”,让当地的许多传统银行一下子面临被淘汰的境地。美国TED科技娱乐与设计机构的会长克里斯·安德森(Chris  Anderson)称这种破坏性的情况为“群众推动的创新”。因此,在“混合时代”,穷人将会起到意想不到的作用,他们会利用科技来为自己创造新的机遇,破坏那些发达世界的规则。

  
And yet we have not even begun to grasp the implications of human-technology co-evolution. Are you sure that studying insane hours for years on end in medical school is such a good idea when already 75 percent of prostate-cancer surgeries in the United States are robot-assisted? How about the impact of life-extension treatments when governments have yet to adjust their retirement and pension policies to a world in which life expectancy in wealthy societies crosses 75 years, let alone 100 years? Is it only Chinese and Iranian cyberhackers we have to fear, or perhaps also artificially intelligent software programs hijacking markets without any prior warning?
  

但是,我们还甚至还没有开始意识到人类与科技共同进化演变的影响。如果你知道现在美国有大约75%的前列腺癌手术已经是由机器人来辅助进行时,你还会觉得在医学院里刻苦学习好几年是值得的吗?如果现在的发达国家的政府还在为预期人均寿命达到75岁以上的社会制订退休养老政策时,生命科技却一下子把人的寿命提高到100岁以上,那又该怎么办?难道我们只担心来自中国和伊朗的黑客攻击,却没有想到或许有一天人工智能软件会在人类毫无预警的情况下突然对市场发动袭击?

  
The age in which international relations experts could claim to understand the world is fast waning. Welcome to the Hybrid Age, where such restrictive labels are a thing of the past and paradigm-shifting change happens in multiple arenas and at multiple speeds all at once. As Alvin Toffler astutely noted, "The future arrives too soon and in the wrong order."
  

国际关系专家声称他们了解世界的时代已经渐行渐远了。欢迎“混合时代”的到来吧,这是一个无拘无束的时代,世界将在很多领域很多时空内迅速地同时发生重大的整体变革。就像阿尔文·托夫勒尖锐地指出的:“未来来得太快,来得太无序了。”

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