手机游戏与掌机游戏编辑本段回目录
知名游戏杂志《Game Informer》的最新一篇文章提到了一个有趣的问题——手机游戏（运行于智能手机，平板电脑或者电子阅读器的游戏）是否会“毁掉”掌机（DS和PSP）市场？
psp_iphone
市场规模是个关键问题。游戏的专用系统（不论是掌机游戏还是其他游戏），订阅服务（就像微软Xbox Live）都是游戏的主要收入来源。掌机游戏市场仍然有很大的发展潜力，尤其是在今天这个数字销售渠道高度发达的社会，掌机市场仍可为游戏开发商带来巨大的收益。
从iTune App Store和Android market等平台的手机应用销售情况来看，我们不难发现游戏应用并不只是面临同类产品的竞争。举个例子来说吧，在iTune App Store中，游戏应用数量在整个应用市场中仅占很小的一部分。开发者每天都会制造出大量的游戏应用，并将其投放到市场，所以这些不同的游戏不只要在自己的市场上应对竞争，同时还要在整个应用市场中逆流而上。尽管除了电影和书籍，游戏可以说是人们寻找乐趣，消遣的最好方法，所以就难免出现游戏市场的激烈竞争。
另外一个需要关注的问题则是过度饱和的市场。不管是常规游戏市场还是应用商店市场，里面都充斥着太多逐渐饱和的游戏了。除了很多独立游戏外，许多大型开发商也一直在推出新款游戏。这个问题同样涉及到了游戏的规模问题。不论是在家庭电脑或者掌机市场中，每天都有无数的游戏进入流通领域。自从NES（任天堂娱乐系统）发行以来，在游戏最为高产的一年中，平均共有12至15款高质量的游戏被投放到市场中。同时，也有很多模仿这些高质量游戏的山寨产品，以及那些推广力度不足或独立开发的游戏进入市场，虽然有些会让玩家有“惊艳”的效果，但是有些却最终还是被遗忘掉了。自手机应用商店开业以来，它们在短时间内推出的游戏数量，甚至堪比NES自1983年问世以来所推出的游戏数量的总和。
EA全球销售高级副总裁伊丽莎白·哈尔兹(Elizabeth Harz) 在手机市场营销论坛上曾表言表示，游戏应用在整个应用市场中占有17%的比例。假如苹果App Store共有17%的游戏产品，那就意味着自2008年该应用商店上线以来，App Store共有5.95万款游戏。而Android Market自从2008年10月“开张”以来，其所提供的游戏应用已经大大超过了任天堂所发行的所有游戏（游戏邦注：但并不一定包括再发行的虚拟掌机游戏）。鉴于这种情况，游戏发行商应该对这个过于饱和的游戏市场进行更深入的调查研究。
不论手机游戏是否也会步入掌机游戏的后尘，它都不可能“毁掉”掌机游戏。手机游戏将面临两种不同的情况，一是它将推动现有科技的进一步发展（游戏邦注：就像任天堂所推出的祼眼3D掌机游戏，以及Sony制造出NGP掌机游戏等），二是它将被整个市场中不计其数的游戏所淹没。换句话说，如果手机游戏应用市场会“毁掉”其他市场，那么它也会自动走向绝路。（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，作者：Jonathan Gronli）
Analysis: Mobile gaming won’t kill the handheld console market
by Jonathan Gronli
In one of their most recent print editions, Game Informer posed a rather interesting question. The question was whether or not mobile gaming (via smartphones, tablets, e-readers, etc.) will kill the handheld (DS and PSP) market.
One issue that pops up is the scope of the market. For gaming-dedicated systems (handhelds or not), games and subscriptions (like Xbox Live) are the revenue streams. There is still a lot of money to be made gaming-dedicated handheld and console markets, especially with the growing use of digital distribution.
In terms of mobile outlets like the iTunes App Store and the Android market, you see a bit of a shift due to the fact that the game market isn’t competing with itself. With the iTunes App Store, for example, you get a smaller percentage of game apps in circulation if you compare them to the total amount of apps. Aside from the high amount of game apps that are both in circulation and in development, it is something that ultimately needs to compete not only with its own market but with the general app market as a whole. This is true even in light of the fact that people are always looking for a good way to unwind and have fun. Other than movies or books, there is no better way to relax than to game.
Another issue is over saturation. Yes, both the regular game market and the app stores markets get over-saturated with games. Aside from independent games, there’s major developer releases popping up. The issue that pops up here is, again, an issue of scope. Yes, there is a multitude of games out there in circulation in one way or another in terms of home, computer and handheld consoles. Since the release of the NES, there are maybe 12 to 15 high-profile releases a year during a highly productive year (not including launch titles). Then there are the numerous clones of different high-profile games as well as either poorly advertised or independent games that just slip in under the radar to either be mostly missed or surprise everyone. However, since the opening of the mobile app stores, we have enough games released in a short time that could possibly match the total amount of games released since the Japanese release of the NES in July 1983.
Elizabeth Harz, senior vice president of global sales at Electronic Arts, told the Mobile Marketing Forum (as reported by Game Informer) that games account for only 17 percent of all apps available today. If it was 17 percent of apps available through Apple, that’s about 59,500 apps since the opening of the app store in July 2008. Even Android, since the opening of its marketplace in October 2008, has surpassed the total amount of games released for every console (including handhelds) that Nintendo has put its name to (not necessarily including virtual console re-releases). Over-saturation like this is an issue that does need to be examined in-depth, which will be done in a later article.
This is what is likely going to happen with mobile gaming. It won’t kill the standard handheld gaming. Mobile gaming will do one of two things: It will either force an evolution of the tech that we know – much like Nintendo has done bringing glasses-free 3D to handhelds or what Sony seems to be trying to do with the NGP (if they succeed) – or the mobile gaming market will drown itself in its own content. In other words, if the mobile gaming app market kills anything, it will kill itself.（source:gamertell）
