2013年移动游戏领域13个预言编辑本段回目录
每年这个时候，我们都会打着具体预测2013年形势的幌子泛泛谈论占星术理论。去年我的预测结果还算稳妥，因此今年我打算再试一回，希望能挖掘出 更多奇异现象。本文并没有详细阐述2013年游戏领域的所有发展趋势。而且显然忽略了用户隐私、专利权、整体经济以及新兴公司（游戏邦注：比如今年洛杉矶 将成为热点风投区域）的发展。
1.主机领域应改弦易辙，寻找新出路：也许微软或索尼会明智整合Android系统，否则它们仍将继续衰落。
2.谷歌将收购Facebook：也许它们不会这样做，但他们已经意识到，随着用户与设备、环境、意图的联系越发紧密，整合功能将成为用户检索内容的关键，而社交性就是其中的一个重要元素。谷歌也许是因为看到Facebook在中国无法施展手脚而踌躇不定，但它必须认识到社交途径是加强了解用户的关键，而Google+显然并非实现这一战略的良策。如果不收购Facebook，那它就应寻找强制举措吸引用户加入Google+，逐步改善其高效社交网络Gmail的隐私问题。
3.移动应用购买与搜索体验将融入更棒的社交因子：对所有应用开发商而言，搜索与发现仍是头疼/发展的重心。亚马逊在此拥有强大的潜在优势。
4.仿制游戏将成为趋势：这是好事，也是游戏行业的发展模式。其实同种题材上多款游戏的微妙改变，就好像调整某款新题材游戏的多个方面，只是后者会令人觉得变化较大，因为这些情况同时发生在单个资源上。这和总有新博客会启动，新餐馆及新咖啡店开张是同一个道理。
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5.到今年年末，我们仍无法合法化美国地区的博彩游戏：如果各个州均认为它们需要更多资金，这才会激发更多市场动力。
6.移动游戏的用户获取价格将趋于平稳：在2012年12月，平均用户获取价格明显低于2011年同期水平。由此可见，我们可通过更多设备与渠道获取用户。我认为游戏发行商会重新估量用户的终生价值及获取时间，降低一些用户获取门槛。
7.移动游戏发行商将继续分化发展：首先，今年有些发行商会限制老虎机奖励能）。其次，许多人都只关注Supercell游戏在榜单之首的盈利情况，但却没有注意到该公司每日6万美元的营销成本。我不确定折合成一个月共是多少，但我肯定那必定高于大多数开发商在用户获取上的花费。
8.今年，动视的市值将会下跌，但仍然名列前茅：玩具与实体商品是动视发展最快的领域。这是好事，但对电子游戏公司而言未必如此。此外，他们还未将进军移动领域视为重点。
9.Zynga将找到以较小成员运营公司的方法：令人难以置信的是，Zynga关闭了那些拥有大批用户的游戏。他们下意识地走上了一条路径，即聘请来自大型主机游戏发行公司的员工，并将后者所带来的旧思维运用到了自己原本灵敏而具有突破性的公司上。未来它将加倍注重这方面事宜，但这并不是成功法宝。
10.RIM无法重现昨日风采：在第四季度的采访中，该公司的一名开发者关系经理表示，BB10系统已经聚集了所有的重量级开发者。我希望其他开发者没有看到这篇文章。但即使BB10获得了已经在iOS、亚马逊和Android平台现身的同种软件产品，这就能帮助他们赢回市场份额吗？
11.THQ同样前途堪忧：他们有机会重新打造一家全新灵活的公司，但他们似乎仍局限于制作重型游戏项目（游戏邦注：即大手笔的开发预算、大型公司授权、较高的零售价）这一传统模式。
12.苹果iPhone 5s将以安全性能为卖点：通常他们着眼于更加出色的用户性能，而安全性将成为他们在2013年的一大优势。
13.原生应用依然是主流：移动网页vs原生应用之争并无必要，最终胜出的显然还是原生应用（免费和广告模式也同样如此，这两者仍是必杀盈利选项）。（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，作者：Josh Hartwell）
13 Predictions for Mobile in ‘13
by Josh Hartwell
The following blog was, unless otherwise noted, independently written by a member of Gamasutra’s game development community. The thoughts and opinions expressed here are not necessarily those of Gamasutra or its parent company.
It’s that time of year: time to make astrology-like generalities in the guise of concrete predictions for 2013. My charts were decent last year, so I’ll try to repeat that performance, hopefully with a tad more specificity. This is (most likely) not an exhaustive list of all that will happen in 2013. Some notable omissions include developments that will take place in consumer privacy, patents, the broader economy, and the startup scene (such as LA being THE hotspot for venture capital this year).
1. Consoles have to be rethought: Perhaps Microsoft or Sony can cleverly integrate with Android. Otherwise, continued death spiral.
2. Google will buy Facebook: They may not, but they do realize that as we become more integrated with our devices, context, intent, and synthesis will be huge differentiators in search, and social is a big element of those. Google’s hesitation would be Facebook’s lack of a China presence, but Google must know more about you socially to be relevant in five years – and Google+ hasn’t been the path. If they can’t do this, then look for more heavy-handed ways to draw you into Google+, and look for gradual privacy changes to their effective social network, Gmail.
3. There will be better social integrations into the mobile app shopping and searching experience: Search and discovery continues to be a huge hearta a huge headache/opportunity for all app developers. Amazon has a huge (and under-reported) potential edge here.
4. Me2 Games will be the norm: And this is good. This is how industries move forward. A dozen subtle changes from a dozen games in one genre is the same as a dozen changes in one game from a seemingly new genre – the latter just feels outsized because it happens at once from a single source. Likewise, new blogs will start, new restaurants will open, and so will new coffee shops.
5. We’ll be no closer to legalized mobile gaming in the U.S. at the end of the year: This had a lot more momentum when states felt like they needed a lot more money.
6. User Acquisition (UA) rates for mobile games will stabilize: December 2012 was less expensive per user than December 2011. We’re seeing more devices, and more channels for UA. I think we’re also seeing game publishers recalculate Lifetime Values (LTVs) and/or the timeframe in which LTVs are earned, and ratcheting down some UA thresholds.
7. Mobile game publishers will continue to stratify: First, there’s been a real stranglehold on the prized feature slots by just a few publishers this year. (I don’t know how much more encouragement I need to download N.O.V.A. 3) Second, with all the focus on how much Supercell is making at the top of the charts, there wasn’t as much focus on its daily marketing spend of $60,000. I’m not sure how much that equates to per month, but I bet it’s more than most developers spend on user acquisition in a lifetime.
8. Activision’s market cap will come down this year, but they’ll still be No. 1: Toys –physical goods – are their biggest growth segment. This is fine, just not fine for a video game company. And they simply haven’t ventured into mobile in a significant enough way.
9. Zynga will figure out how to run games with fewer people (or at least, they better): Incredible that they have to shutter games with the number of people (a lot) and the number of games (a few) they had (mind boggling). They consciously went down the path of recruiting from the biggest, heaviest, most old-school console publisher, and brought all of those bad old traits to their previously nimble, disruptive company. Its focus for the future appears to be doubling down on this bet, which is not a recipe for success.
10. RIM doesn’t return to prominence: In a Q4 interview, one of their developer relations managers said that they already had all of the important developers on board for BB10. Wow. I hope other developers didn’t read the same article. But even then, does getting all the same software that’s available on iOS, Amazon and Android enable them to regain market share?
11. Neither does THQ: They have an opportunity to reformulate as a nimble, novel company, but they seem to be staying the course of heavy games (big development, big license, big retail price) on heavy devices.
12. Apple will tout device security with the iPhone 5s: They usually focus on more cool-consumer features, but this is a big advantage for them in 2013.
13. Mobile Web vs. Apps will still not be a debate: It’s apps. It’s native. (It’s freemium and ads, too; I heard that was still being debated.)(source:gamasutra)
